The 2024 MLB awards season is upon us, and while some races appear to be foregone conclusions, others offer intriguing debates. Let's dive into the predictions for the six major player prizes, recognizing that these are purely speculative and carry no official weight.
American League MVP: Historic performance from Judge
Aaron Judge's 2024 season was nothing short of extraordinary. His 10.5 bWAR places him among the elite of the integration era, behind only a handful of legends like Willie Mays and Barry Bonds. His .458 OBP combined with over 50 home runs puts him in a category shared with only a few all-time greats. While his long-term durability remains a question, Judge's season at age 32 was a record-breaking season. While Bobby Witt Jr.'s breakout season deserves recognition, Judge's performance deserves a unanimous MVP selection. Also worth noting are the impressive years of two pitchers, Tarik Skubal and Seth Lugo, who deserve consideration given the evolving role and usage of pitchers in modern baseball.
NL MVP: Ohtani's offensive ability wins
Shohei Ohtani is poised to become the very first designated hitter to win an MVP award. While his 50/50 feat is notable, it is his offensive dominance that truly sets him apart. Ohtani leads the NL in at-bats by a significant margin, even surpassing Edgar Martinez's historic 1995 season. His offensive value overshadows any defensive limitations inherent to the DH role. Francisco Lindor presents a compelling alternative, but Ohtani's historic offensive production makes him the clear favorite. The unexpected emergence of William Contreras as a key contributor to the Brewers after a complex trade involving Atlanta and Oakland adds another intriguing layer to the NL narrative. And the resurgence of 35-year-old Chris Sale, defying injury history to deliver a career-defining performance, is a story in itself.
AL Cy Young: Skubal expected to dominate
Tarik Skubal appears to be the clear favorite for the AL Cy Young award. The Kansas City Royals deserve recognition for placing two pitchers, Skubal and Seth Lugo, among the top contenders. The impact of evolving pitcher usage patterns is worth considering when evaluating pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Logan Gilbert, who prioritize innings pitched in an era of shorter starts.
NL Cy Young: Sale's resurgence, a remarkable feat
Chris Sale's remarkable comeback season at age 35 makes him the NL Cy Young favorite. Overcoming years of injuries and diminished performances, Sale turned in his second best season to date, solidifying his potential Hall of Fame trajectory. Logan Webb also deserves recognition for his impressive innings total, a valuable asset in today's game.
AL Rookie of the Year: Cowser's value shines through
Colton Cowser's overall value, as measured by WAR, positions him as a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year, despite his limitations against left-handed throwing. While Luis Gil and Wyatt Langford have shown promise, Cowser's consistent performance gives him the edge. It's important to consider playing time and opportunities when evaluating a starter's performance, as platoon players like Austin Wells and Wilyer Abreu may have inflated WAR totals due to limited exposure against tougher matchups.
NL Rookie of the Year: Merrill's versatility beats Skenes
While Paul Skenes' high profile and immediate impact might make him a popular pick, Jackson Merrill's outstanding season, including a successful position change, arguably makes him the more deserving candidate. Jackson Chourio's youth and potential also deserve recognition, highlighting the award's focus on future stars.
